Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of estimating future sales, customer demand, costs or operating requirements using historical results and current information. In a restaurant, a sales forecast helps management plan staffing, purchasing, production, reservations and cash flow before the service period begins.

What restaurants forecast

• Sales and covers: expected revenue, guest counts and average cheque.
• Menu demand: likely sales of individual dishes, beverages and specials.
• Labour: the number and mix of employees needed for expected volume.
• Purchasing and production: ingredient quantities, prep levels and batch sizes.
• Costs and cash flow: expected food, labour, occupancy and other operating expenses.

How to build a restaurant forecast

Start with comparable historical periods, then adjust for reservations, day of the week, seasonality, holidays, local events, weather, promotions, opening hours, menu changes and current booking pace. Estimate covers and average spend separately where possible, then calculate expected sales. Translate the forecast into practical purchasing, prep and staffing requirements.

Example

A restaurant compares last year’s Mother’s Day brunch with current reservations and expected walk-in demand. If the forecast is 120 covers rather than the usual 75, the manager adjusts the schedule, orders additional high-volume ingredients and plans production quantities for the larger service.

Forecast versus budget

A budget is the approved financial plan or target for a period. A forecast is the current estimate of what is likely to happen based on the latest information. Forecasts should be updated as reservations, sales and operating conditions change.

Chef’s tip: Compare forecast with actual results after each service or reporting period. Track both the size and direction of the variance, identify the reason and use what you learn to improve the next forecast. A forecast is a decision-making tool, not a guarantee.